{"id":4575,"date":"2026-03-04T15:47:28","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T20:47:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thebulletinjournal.com\/?p=4575"},"modified":"2026-03-04T15:52:44","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T20:52:44","slug":"arthur-snell-warns-climate-crisis-is-rewriting-global-power","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thebulletinjournal.com\/?p=4575","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Snell Warns Climate Crisis Is Rewriting Global Power"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Arthur Snell<\/strong>, a former British diplomat who served in conflict zones including <strong>Afghanistan<\/strong>, <strong>Iraq<\/strong> and <strong>Yemen<\/strong>, says a heating planet is changing geopolitics faster than democracies can adapt. In his new book, <strong>Elemental<\/strong>, Snell argues climate disruption is not just an environmental story. He says it is a driver of conflict, migration and a renewed scramble for resources that can look like a modern form of empire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Snell traces his shift in focus to a personal moment. While climbing in the Swiss Alps, he narrowly avoided a deadly incident involving unstable rock. He concluded the mountains he loved were becoming less predictable as temperatures rise. That led him to a wider claim. If physical geography shapes power, then climate change is now reshaping state behavior, alliances and risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conflict, Food, and Migration Pressures Are Converging<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Snell argues climate stress can intensify existing tensions rather than replacing them. Wars may appear rooted in ideology, security, or resources like oil, but climate impacts can deepen the underlying pressures. He points to drought, crop failure and instability across parts of Africa as factors that can fuel violence, political breakdown and displacement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He also links climate disruption to migration politics in democracies. Snell notes that most migration is regional, not intercontinental. But even smaller inflows can have outsized political impact. He cites how changing conditions in places such as <strong>Guatemala<\/strong> can push economic migration north, then become political ammunition in US elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Europe, he highlights the <strong>Sahel<\/strong> as a critical zone. The region has seen repeated political crises and conflict. Snell suggests climate pressures can amplify fragility, while external powers compete for influence and access to minerals. He argues that resulting displacement can feed the rise of populist politics in Europe, where immigration is already a high-salience issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Arctic and the North Are Becoming Strategic Front Lines<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Snell says the warming north is creating new strategic incentives. A thawing Arctic can open seasonal shipping routes and intensify competition over resources such as minerals, fish, oil and gas. He frames the Arctic as a flashpoint because it is where <strong>Russia<\/strong> and the <strong>United States<\/strong> sit in close proximity, and where Russia also borders NATO members.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He also highlights <strong>Greenland<\/strong> as a symbol of shifting value. Its location and resource potential make it attractive, but also vulnerable to external pressure. Snell argues that interest in Greenland should be understood in a broader context of nations positioning for a future shaped by scarcity, access and security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In North America, he raises another possibility. If extreme heat, wildfire risk and insurance withdrawal worsen in parts of the United States, internal migration could accelerate northward. Snell suggests this could shift economic gravity and create new political friction with <strong>Canada<\/strong>, especially if resource competition grows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Autocracies May Exploit the Moment, Democracies Must Adapt<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Snell argues the world is sliding toward a harsher model of power. He describes a dynamic where major states seek control of what they need, including land, minerals, and energy routes. In that environment, he says expansionary leaders may have an advantage, because they can act quickly and sustain long strategies without electoral pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He does not argue democracies are doomed. But he warns that today\u2019s politics can struggle to sustain long-term planning and public consent for difficult tradeoffs. He points to how even moderate shocks, including food-price inflation, can shake governments. As climate impacts compound, he expects more volatility unless democratic states build resilience and credibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Snell is skeptical that fossil-fuel states can smoothly transition. He highlights Gulf countries facing a dual problem. Their economies rely on hydrocarbons, and their climate is becoming less livable. He suggests that as oil demand falls and heat rises, internal stability risks could grow. That could reverberate through economies that have relied on Gulf capital and energy relationships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Britain\u2019s Warning Light Is Flashing<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Snell argues the UK is not preparing fast enough for climate-linked security risks. He says some analysis exists, but he doubts it is sufficiently embedded in top-level decision-making. He points to infrastructure gaps, including long-term water resilience. He also questions whether the UK can rely on historic assumptions in security planning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the US relationship, he describes the \u201cspecial relationship\u201d as overstated and says Britain should plan for a less dependable Washington. He argues that public friendliness alone is not a strategy. He calls for deeper work on medium- and long-term defense and security arrangements that do not depend on nostalgia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the warnings, Snell is not fatalistic. He argues that the crisis can also force cooperation, because few countries can solve climate-linked risks alone. His message is that the world will keep going, but it will change quickly. The danger, he says, is treating that change as someone else\u2019s problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Arthur Snell, a former British diplomat who served in conflict zones including Afghanistan, Iraq and Yemen, says a heating planet is changing geopolitics faster than democracies can adapt. In his new book, Elemental, Snell argues climate disruption is not just an environmental story. He says it is a driver of conflict, migration and a renewed<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":4576,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[44],"class_list":{"0":"post-4575","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-climate"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Arthur Snell Warns Climate Crisis Is Rewriting Global Power - The Bulletin Journal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thebulletinjournal.com\/?p=4575\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Arthur Snell Warns Climate Crisis Is Rewriting Global Power - The Bulletin Journal\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Arthur Snell, a former British diplomat who served in conflict zones including Afghanistan, Iraq and Yemen, says a heating planet is changing geopolitics faster than democracies can adapt. 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