Democrats are pointing to strong primary turnout and a slate of preferred nominees as early signs of momentum heading into the 2026 midterms. The party is trying to widen the House battlefield into districts President Donald Trump carried comfortably, betting that district-fit candidates can narrow the gap.
In North Carolina, Democratic primary winner Jamie Ager said flipping the state’s 11th District involves “difficult math.” Democrats have not held the seat in more than a decade, and Trump carried it by 10 points in 2024 under current lines. Ager, a fourth-generation farmer, said local relationships may help him compete beyond party labels.
Moderates Win Key Tests in North Carolina and Texas
National Democrats also celebrated outcomes in two targeted primaries. Alongside Ager, they got their preferred candidate in Texas’ 15th District, where Bobby Pulido won the Democratic primary. Trump carried the district by 18 points in 2024, making it a longshot by recent history.
Supporters said these wins validate a strategy centered on candidates who align with their districts, even if that means diverging from parts of the national party’s brand. Liam Kerr of Welcome PAC argued that a distinct candidate profile can help overcome negative party perceptions in red-leaning areas.
Pulido, a Latin Grammy winner, faced criticism from his opponent over his personal opposition to abortion. Democrats believe his socially conservative positioning could be an asset against GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz. Pulido said Democrats need to understand why they have struggled and rebuild support among voters they lost.
Turnout Signals Energy, More Primaries Ahead
Turnout figures fueled Democratic optimism. In North Carolina’s U.S. Senate primary, roughly 200,000 more votes were cast on the Democratic side than the Republican side. In Texas, Democratic Senate primary turnout was described as the highest for any midterm contest since at least 1970.
Democrats still face several competitive primaries in the coming weeks, including races in Colorado, Nebraska, and California. Democratic strategist Adam Bozzi said the party’s energy remains high regardless of individual primary outcomes.
GOP Primaries Turn Messy in Texas
Republicans are also navigating turbulence. In two Texas districts designed to favor the GOP, Rep. Dan Crenshaw lost to state Rep. Steve Toth. Rep. Tony Gonzales was pushed into a runoff before ending his reelection bid, clearing the way for activist Brandon Herrera to become the nominee.
Republican operatives argue Democrats are overreaching. NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella dismissed Democratic map expansion as unrealistic and claimed Democrats will waste resources while managing internal primary fights.
Redistricting Battles Could Reset the Field
Control of the House may also hinge on shifting district lines. Republicans currently hold an advantage in nine districts after new maps in Texas, Missouri, Ohio, and North Carolina. Democrats could gain as many as six seats through changes tied to California maps and a Utah court decision that created a blue district.
More changes may be coming. Democrats in Missouri are exploring a ballot initiative to overturn new maps. In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis called for a special session in April to redraw maps. In Virginia, Democrats are backing new maps via an April referendum, with former President Barack Obama recording an ad in support.
Both parties are also watching the Supreme Court for a Voting Rights Act decision that could reshape rules around majority-minority districts, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile cycle.